When will it start
When is it your turn?
That's how we did it
Two factors go into the prognosis of a vaccination appointment: the size of the different prioritization groups and the speed at which the vaccination will take place. Both factors can only be determined or estimated approximately. The prognoses are therefore subject to considerable uncertainty; they are only a rough guide. As the vaccination coverage progresses, the period can be narrowed down more and more. This article is therefore constantly updated.
How we calculated the size of the prioritization groups
The vaccination ordinance of the Federal Ministry of Health defines various priority groups that determine the sequence of vaccinations in Germany. The division into these groups is based on numerous factors, including a person's age, occupation and state of health. The living situation and contact with risk groups also play a role. The actual implementation is the responsibility of the state and local authorities. Upon request, all federal states announced that they would comply with the federal ordinance, which in turn is based on the recommendations of the Standing Vaccination Commission (Stiko).
In order to estimate the vaccination dates, we first had to determine the size of the prioritization groups in the individual federal states. When available, we have used figures from the Federal Statistical Office, and elsewhere on estimates from Stiko. The data on dementia patients in Germany come from the German Alzheimer's Society, the number of people caring for disabled people comes from the Federal Employment Agency. Estimates of the proportion of the population with relevant pre-existing illnesses come from a study by the AOK's scientific institute.
If the data was broken down by age and state, we have taken this over. If this information is missing, we have allocated the nationwide figures according to the population share of the federal states. This applies, for example, to residents of retirement and nursing homes as well as to all professional groups that are given priority vaccinations.
Part of the population is currently excluded from the vaccination, including children and adolescents under 16 years of age and pregnant women. People who have already been through a Covid 19 infection confirmed by laboratory diagnostics are not explicitly excluded according to the vaccination ordinance, but they should not be vaccinated at first. In addition, not everyone wants to be vaccinated - surveys by Deutschlandtrend show that around three quarters of the population are currently ready to be vaccinated. We assume that the willingness to vaccinate is evenly distributed among all prioritization groups.
Sometimes the criteria for prioritization overlap, so many people are assigned to a group for several reasons. As far as possible, we have determined and corrected these double counts. Since obesity often occurs in connection with previous illnesses such as type II diabetes or cardiovascular diseases, only one third of the proportion of obese people was included in the calculation.
We compared the estimates of the group size with the highest priority with the information from the federal states, which they made available to the SZ upon request. The responsible state ministries did not have any estimates for the other groups.
Without exception, we give rounded values in the article. Detailed numbers would convey an accuracy that doesn't exist. As a result of the rounding, it can happen that the percentages mentioned in the article cannot be added exactly to 100 percent. The following applies to all of our data: At the moment, it represents the best possible level of knowledge, but it is also constantly changing.
How we calculated the waiting time until the vaccination appointment
The decisive factor for estimating the waiting time is how many vaccinations can be made daily in the federal states. Calculations by the Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance in the Federal Republic of Germany serve as an optimistic scenario for the earliest possible vaccination date. In addition, we asked all state governments again which capacities are currently available. Where these plans go beyond the nationwide target, we have used them for the earliest possible vaccination appointment. The pessimistic scenario results from the average number of people vaccinated per day in the past week and represents an estimate of the last possible vaccination date. This is usually far in the future, but could move forward, for example if additional vaccines are approved or their vaccine suppliers Expand production capacities.
The indicated time frame refers to the date for the first vaccination. For optimal protection against infection, a second dose is given every three to six weeks. With one exception: the Johnson & Johnson vaccine only needs to be administered once.
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